Miles, what a sobering read on this morning after Memorial Day!! I have the highest record for Andrew Ross Sorkin, been listening to him for a while, and think he’s spot on! Along with all that was mentioned in your post, we also have Trump’s tool as the head of the Federal Reserve now, a man I don’t think has the spine to refuse demands for rate cuts when they come, and I suspect it’s only a matter of a time, before that order is issued. What a pickle we are all in…not just here, but the entire world!! Thanks for your words of warning…and as I always, I am and will remain defiant!
I saw Sorkin on 60 Minutes (and frankly I was surprised that the piece was even aired). Today I feel more helpless than I did last week at this time. Are we all tied to the railroad tracks? Trump says that the US is the "hottest" country in the world, and he's right. We're all about to burn in hell. Figuratively that is. (For Trump, it will be literally.)
I am wondering what I can do besides contact my Representative and Senators. I vote in New York (all three are Democrats) but I live in Sweden. What can those of us outside the US do? My family, friends, colleagues here didn't vote for any of this. It is particularly galling to realize that this fucking monster is ruining the lives of millions (perhaps billions) of people who did not get a say in who was elected president of the US. I want to do more. I want to do EVERYTHING I can even as I am thousands of kilometers away.
organize a resistance movement against him/his administration in sweden! petition your government, requesting they all be arrested if they leave the country. nato countries are already describing us as a ROGUE NATION!!
I am involved in Democrats Abroad and a group that has organised No Kings marches. But I will be in contact with our government. We have an election in September.
Rolling boycotts are needed here. Monday - don't buy any P&G product. Tuesday, don't buy any cola products (I'm looking at both Coca Cola and Pepsi). Wednesday will be Unilever. I think these CEOs will figure out that WE THE PEOPLE are angry.
Thank you Miles, more people need to understand what’s happening economically—and I’m not talking just high gas prices going forward or food inflation.
The dollar as the reserve currency of the world is on the menu. Japan, who has been funding our and Europe’s short-term debt for decades are repatriating over $1.4 trillion in US debt back to Japan as well as another $500-600 billion for the EU and Britain since the central bank raised interest rates and America is proving itself to be less than a reliable ally.
This means no more free lunches—interests rates will be high going forward and with the current costs of servicing the debt, and our increasing deficits and debt, we could see borrowing costs soar to over 10%—a catastrophic event (see 1970’s stagflation or the lost decade—actually 30 years) for Japan starting in the late 90’s.
And let’s not forget, the markets have been pricing in three rate cuts for this year—that isn’t happening. In fact when the Fed meets in June, they’ll most likely do the opposite ; raise rates which could be an impetus for a recession.
Moreover, this doesn’t even include commercial rest estate at record high lending and record defaults, creating systemic risk exposure (half of all comm’l Real Estate mortgages come due in 2026. Then there is credit card debt, residential mortgages and student debt all at record highs and default rates—it starts to mimic 2007-8.
And as Mark Twain famously said, “history doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes!”
Furthermore this doesn’t even include market volatility, consumer sentiment at record lows, inverted bond yields (shorter yields higher than long term yields).
Bottom line, the Fed can only control short-term interest rates which were inverted (currently fine). The Bond Market or smart money controls long-term rates which averaged a 4.86% yield since an its inception (10 and 30 year bonds) and they can push interest rates up by allowing the treasury auctions to fail.
My point, we are now financing our long term debt using mostly short-term financing (33% of debt under 2 years) with yields closing in on 4% (was inverted) and its about to get much higher as shorter maturities occur.
This in a nutshell is the ultimate economic suicide pact and a recipe for disaster! IMHO…:)
I'm no economist, and maybe this is too simplistic, but if all the human workers are replaced by AI, who'll then be able to afford to buy all those goods and services being produced by bots?
Miles, a very good rundown tying some major things together.
This is something I'd like to see more of, and I'd like to see it taken further. The initial alarm bells go off and the first reaction is to start drawing straight lines: like CEO's feel compelled to accelerate the AI roll out to ditch all those 'expensive' employees. The proximate cause of this, in this case, being multiple idiotic Trump turds tossed in the global punchbowl.
The first-level analysis of this is linear, but it doesn't stop there in reality. Workers laid off *forever* in the teeth of a depression is, in itself, a... uh.... bad look. That happening at a time when mega-wealthy CEOs are held in very low esteem, and you've got the makings of a social flame-out of biblical proportions. See, all those workers will *not* just fade quietly away, they get a 'vote' in the cosmic sense.
My view is that Trump 'merely' accelerated all this to happen at the same time, making the ultimate outcome more extreme than if it were dragged out through a 'gradual' introduction of AI. If you're right, and the CEO's are stampeded into quick adoption, the situation will become unbounded quickly. AI will be remembered as 'Trump's Fault' and widespread violence, including war, will result. All those hopeful Guaranteed Minimum Income policies just now being formulated will be washed away in a tsunami of social dislocation.
Or not. I could be wrong. But that's how to place your bets.
Since a major fraction of the economy consists of consumer spending, what should CEO’s expect when many consumers are unemployed. They should figure this outcome into the salary/health benefit/vacation time vs profit equation. Surely there is a balancing point that would mitigate *some* level of AI generated unemployment. Or at least I would hope there is and that CEOs would be wise enough to recognize and plan for this.
Miles, I am so grateful that we have people like you telling us the truth about what is going on in Washington, and giving us the value of your experience in warning us of what's to come. Thank you for being one of the brave in standing up to the corruption of this administration. We appreciate you!
Miles, what a sobering read on this morning after Memorial Day!! I have the highest record for Andrew Ross Sorkin, been listening to him for a while, and think he’s spot on! Along with all that was mentioned in your post, we also have Trump’s tool as the head of the Federal Reserve now, a man I don’t think has the spine to refuse demands for rate cuts when they come, and I suspect it’s only a matter of a time, before that order is issued. What a pickle we are all in…not just here, but the entire world!! Thanks for your words of warning…and as I always, I am and will remain defiant!
Christie
I saw Sorkin on 60 Minutes (and frankly I was surprised that the piece was even aired). Today I feel more helpless than I did last week at this time. Are we all tied to the railroad tracks? Trump says that the US is the "hottest" country in the world, and he's right. We're all about to burn in hell. Figuratively that is. (For Trump, it will be literally.)
I am wondering what I can do besides contact my Representative and Senators. I vote in New York (all three are Democrats) but I live in Sweden. What can those of us outside the US do? My family, friends, colleagues here didn't vote for any of this. It is particularly galling to realize that this fucking monster is ruining the lives of millions (perhaps billions) of people who did not get a say in who was elected president of the US. I want to do more. I want to do EVERYTHING I can even as I am thousands of kilometers away.
organize a resistance movement against him/his administration in sweden! petition your government, requesting they all be arrested if they leave the country. nato countries are already describing us as a ROGUE NATION!!
I am involved in Democrats Abroad and a group that has organised No Kings marches. But I will be in contact with our government. We have an election in September.
Can we construct a claw to get back any money and comfort these bastards have taken?
Rolling boycotts are needed here. Monday - don't buy any P&G product. Tuesday, don't buy any cola products (I'm looking at both Coca Cola and Pepsi). Wednesday will be Unilever. I think these CEOs will figure out that WE THE PEOPLE are angry.
Thank you Miles, more people need to understand what’s happening economically—and I’m not talking just high gas prices going forward or food inflation.
The dollar as the reserve currency of the world is on the menu. Japan, who has been funding our and Europe’s short-term debt for decades are repatriating over $1.4 trillion in US debt back to Japan as well as another $500-600 billion for the EU and Britain since the central bank raised interest rates and America is proving itself to be less than a reliable ally.
This means no more free lunches—interests rates will be high going forward and with the current costs of servicing the debt, and our increasing deficits and debt, we could see borrowing costs soar to over 10%—a catastrophic event (see 1970’s stagflation or the lost decade—actually 30 years) for Japan starting in the late 90’s.
And let’s not forget, the markets have been pricing in three rate cuts for this year—that isn’t happening. In fact when the Fed meets in June, they’ll most likely do the opposite ; raise rates which could be an impetus for a recession.
Moreover, this doesn’t even include commercial rest estate at record high lending and record defaults, creating systemic risk exposure (half of all comm’l Real Estate mortgages come due in 2026. Then there is credit card debt, residential mortgages and student debt all at record highs and default rates—it starts to mimic 2007-8.
And as Mark Twain famously said, “history doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes!”
Furthermore this doesn’t even include market volatility, consumer sentiment at record lows, inverted bond yields (shorter yields higher than long term yields).
Bottom line, the Fed can only control short-term interest rates which were inverted (currently fine). The Bond Market or smart money controls long-term rates which averaged a 4.86% yield since an its inception (10 and 30 year bonds) and they can push interest rates up by allowing the treasury auctions to fail.
My point, we are now financing our long term debt using mostly short-term financing (33% of debt under 2 years) with yields closing in on 4% (was inverted) and its about to get much higher as shorter maturities occur.
This in a nutshell is the ultimate economic suicide pact and a recipe for disaster! IMHO…:)
I'm no economist, and maybe this is too simplistic, but if all the human workers are replaced by AI, who'll then be able to afford to buy all those goods and services being produced by bots?
...other bots? Seems like a broken economic loop.
Miles, a very good rundown tying some major things together.
This is something I'd like to see more of, and I'd like to see it taken further. The initial alarm bells go off and the first reaction is to start drawing straight lines: like CEO's feel compelled to accelerate the AI roll out to ditch all those 'expensive' employees. The proximate cause of this, in this case, being multiple idiotic Trump turds tossed in the global punchbowl.
The first-level analysis of this is linear, but it doesn't stop there in reality. Workers laid off *forever* in the teeth of a depression is, in itself, a... uh.... bad look. That happening at a time when mega-wealthy CEOs are held in very low esteem, and you've got the makings of a social flame-out of biblical proportions. See, all those workers will *not* just fade quietly away, they get a 'vote' in the cosmic sense.
My view is that Trump 'merely' accelerated all this to happen at the same time, making the ultimate outcome more extreme than if it were dragged out through a 'gradual' introduction of AI. If you're right, and the CEO's are stampeded into quick adoption, the situation will become unbounded quickly. AI will be remembered as 'Trump's Fault' and widespread violence, including war, will result. All those hopeful Guaranteed Minimum Income policies just now being formulated will be washed away in a tsunami of social dislocation.
Or not. I could be wrong. But that's how to place your bets.
Since a major fraction of the economy consists of consumer spending, what should CEO’s expect when many consumers are unemployed. They should figure this outcome into the salary/health benefit/vacation time vs profit equation. Surely there is a balancing point that would mitigate *some* level of AI generated unemployment. Or at least I would hope there is and that CEOs would be wise enough to recognize and plan for this.
Miles, I am so grateful that we have people like you telling us the truth about what is going on in Washington, and giving us the value of your experience in warning us of what's to come. Thank you for being one of the brave in standing up to the corruption of this administration. We appreciate you!