Thank you for your reporting, Miles. Your background/experience and current knowledge are invaluable. As someone who appreciates language well used, I appreciated this part of your post: “'Historically, geopolitical oil shocks fade quickly,'” one Citigroup analyst noted this week. The word “historically” is doing a lot of work in that sentence. Indeed, history doesn’t have many examples of the world’s most critical oil chokepoint suddenly going dark." Yes, that word, 'historically' is doing a lot of work. I plan to remember your wording because I think it may apply to many situations in the future. Again, thank you!
According to Zev Shalev, many in the Epstein network engineered and made money when the market crashed in 2008. Could we be watching an engineered crash? Let’s pay attention to who’s making money as a result of this war. Seth Abramson is coming out with a long relevent article later this week that should shed some light.
In November of 2008 this country elected a highly educated President, Barack Obama. He graduated from Harvard Law School with a degree in constitutional law. He appointed individuals to his cabinet and various agencies who possessed the best possible education and expertise. President Obama was calm and deliberate in his decision making. He took out Osama Bin Laden! He confronted the mortgage lending crisis and over time the country turned around toward a better direction. There was never a government shutdown.
Now we have a demented totally corrupt tyrant who surrounds himself with sycophants who possess no moral values, mediocre educations and no real experience in government or policy making and no ability to think critically and over the long term. There is absolutely no plan, no strategy, nothing. All of a sudden our current president decides to attack Iran illegally without constitutional authority. They attacked a country of 90 million people that is the size of California, Texas, and New York combined. I see a downward spiral that could last for some time. It’s not just about oil prices. The structure of our entire government needs to be rebuilt. It’s only the fourth day of this. So frightening.
Unfortunately, Miles, Trump is so rightly afraid of what the Epstein disclosure will bring to light, that he created this war, hoping to stop that disclosure. Fortunately, his MAGA base won't stop the pressure for full disclosure which is poignantly prophetic. Though the American people, by a vast majority, are opposed to the war, Trump erroneously thinks it will stop Epstein. Unfortunately, we and the world will suffer - as well as the Iranian people - due to his hubris.
Miles, I just read something from Jonathan Larson about the Christian nationalist and the end times fever dream in the military in senior leadership in the military. It would be good for you to talk to the defiant folks to explain what’s happening. I personally am going to be calling my representatives in Washington today to explain my alarm that there are military leaders in hot zones today, who are quoting scripture and talking about the bloody Crusades and the end times and the coming of Jesus Christ. They are talking about Armageddon and are very very happy about this. So we need to start really seriously talking about this because these are the type of people who would absolutely try to blow things up which would kill us all. I do not think I’m exaggerating.
The ones promoting this who are using it to control their followers are the ones... And they need to be exposed so their followers - and everyone else - can be freed to see the truth. Some will get it, some won't, some will claim any leadership position made vacant, but we need to chip away at their grip on our government.
Absolutely! Mike Johnson is a member of that cult, as is Hegseth. They want to engineer the End Times so that the 2nd coming of Christ will occur and they’ll be saved. What they fail to understand is that their god probably doesn’t appreciate mankind trying to manipulate him. Jesus would likely be imprisoned if he were to show up now by the same folks who are praying fervently for his appearance. If god and Jesus are smart, they’ll leave those fools to their own demise and laugh at them on judgement day.
For more serious info on wcn and the plan, check out Andra Watkins on Substack. She’s the expert on this and P 2025.
This all feels very much like what my Grandmother would have called a spilled milk problem.
When I was very young, my grandmother taught me about what she called “spilled milk problems.”
Her lesson was simple but profound: act with care to avoid spilling the milk. Once the milk is spilled, it takes time, effort, and attention to clean up the mess. That time and effort could have been spent on something productive. And no matter how thoroughly you wipe the floor, you cannot put the milk back into the glass.
The loss is permanent.
A war of choice without clear objectives, constitutional authorization, and a defined path to peace feels very much like one of those spilled milk problems.
We have already spilled some of the milk. Lives have been lost. Billions have been spent. Instability has been unleashed. Even if we eventually “clean up” the situation, we will not be able to restore what was lost — not the lives, not the resources, not the time diverted from other urgent needs.
The deeper question is this: would it not have been better to think carefully and avoid spilling the milk in the first place?
I DO remember 2008 and I DON'T think it will be a brief war. Remember COVID? He said it would last for 2 weeks, 2 weeks it would be over by Easter (interesting that this is happening at a similar time of year) and it lasted NOT weeks, NOT months but YEARS! And I also remember another Republican President saying early on that the mission was accomplished. He was wrong as well, the Iraq War lasted way too long!
I would add how much worse and immediate the crisis is for our once and hopefully future allies in Europe, who depend so much more than we do on not only oil but natural gas from the Middle East. Never mind China. The possibility this blows up into a greater global conflagration haunts. Meanwhile the Saudis and Russians laugh all the way to the bank, and the nihilist regime here is crushing alternative energy development…
Miles, this is one of many issues that this ill conceived, and unnecessary, war triggered for me! Now it appears that this Iranian War was instigated at the behest of two reprehensible thugs, Netanyahu and MBS, who so easily manipulated Trump into attacking Iran, and apparently without any real plans for what to do have the initial “shock & awe” of the bombing. We, and the entire world will suffer because of the insanity that is this regime!
Another comment, per The Guardian about 3 hours ago:
“Amid soaring energy prices, QatarEnergy to halt production of some downstream products
QatarEnergy, the state-owned energy company, announced Tuesday that it was going to halt production on some downstream products including urea, polymers, methanol and aluminum.”
And yesterday I read about a cut-off of liquid natural gas supplies in The Guardian
Taylor argues that while the 2008 crash is remembered for mortgages, record-high oil prices were the "accelerant" that made the collapse inevitable. He fears the same is happening now.
First off, this is a discrete disruption, not a diffuse failure of hundreds of lenders, intermediaries, and real estate owners. Do not conflate them. It is a war, currently localized to the Mideast.
I would never argue that a war is 'simple', because it never is. But this one aspect of the Iranian War is that some of their assets and forces are focused on threatening the shipping wanting to cross the Strait of Hormuz. The other side of the Strait is Oman and UAE, both of whom have taken unilateral hits by Iran. The equipment and crews making the hits, and their supply lines, could be neutralized, with extreme prejudice. The American firepower in the region, the Israelis, Oman and UAE (20-30 miles away) would certainly have something to say about this.
Yes, and though we don't have the mortgage crisis, we have the tariff-made crisis, the firing of however many federal workers, holding back of funds for all sorts of things that help Americans who aren't billionaires - which also hurt businesses that depend on people spending money who now lack money to spend, loss of tax revenue from immigrants being locked up - offset by who knows how much by additional ICE and CBP hirings and money poured into detention centers that makes us all less safe, loss of local tax revenues from the feds buying warehouses which makes them untaxable by local governments, and a growing number of present and future bankruptcies where lenders lose their money. I wonder what businesses will be "too big to fail" this time and how much money Trump and his allies will be making off of surging oil prices and investing in failing businesses just before Trump uses federal funds to bail them out.
Very well stated, Miles. It appears that the regime may never have considered the effect of closure of the Strait. Or, it was considered and discarded as a factor in their planning. Frankly, it looks like a great deal of the planning was haphazard. We may get through with minimal effect on cost of petroleum products; however,the chaos we are creating in Iran may continue for a long time. It could also have a powerful negative effect on the cost of petroleum.
Malcolm Nance was just reporting within the last hour (around 9-9:30am Eastern) that the strait is only “effectively” closed because it’s too risky to attempt to go through, but maybe his info is outdated.
Thank you for your reporting, Miles. Your background/experience and current knowledge are invaluable. As someone who appreciates language well used, I appreciated this part of your post: “'Historically, geopolitical oil shocks fade quickly,'” one Citigroup analyst noted this week. The word “historically” is doing a lot of work in that sentence. Indeed, history doesn’t have many examples of the world’s most critical oil chokepoint suddenly going dark." Yes, that word, 'historically' is doing a lot of work. I plan to remember your wording because I think it may apply to many situations in the future. Again, thank you!
According to Zev Shalev, many in the Epstein network engineered and made money when the market crashed in 2008. Could we be watching an engineered crash? Let’s pay attention to who’s making money as a result of this war. Seth Abramson is coming out with a long relevent article later this week that should shed some light.
In November of 2008 this country elected a highly educated President, Barack Obama. He graduated from Harvard Law School with a degree in constitutional law. He appointed individuals to his cabinet and various agencies who possessed the best possible education and expertise. President Obama was calm and deliberate in his decision making. He took out Osama Bin Laden! He confronted the mortgage lending crisis and over time the country turned around toward a better direction. There was never a government shutdown.
Now we have a demented totally corrupt tyrant who surrounds himself with sycophants who possess no moral values, mediocre educations and no real experience in government or policy making and no ability to think critically and over the long term. There is absolutely no plan, no strategy, nothing. All of a sudden our current president decides to attack Iran illegally without constitutional authority. They attacked a country of 90 million people that is the size of California, Texas, and New York combined. I see a downward spiral that could last for some time. It’s not just about oil prices. The structure of our entire government needs to be rebuilt. It’s only the fourth day of this. So frightening.
Unfortunately, Miles, Trump is so rightly afraid of what the Epstein disclosure will bring to light, that he created this war, hoping to stop that disclosure. Fortunately, his MAGA base won't stop the pressure for full disclosure which is poignantly prophetic. Though the American people, by a vast majority, are opposed to the war, Trump erroneously thinks it will stop Epstein. Unfortunately, we and the world will suffer - as well as the Iranian people - due to his hubris.
It’s like stepping out of the path of a high speed train into the path of one coming the other way.
Miles, I just read something from Jonathan Larson about the Christian nationalist and the end times fever dream in the military in senior leadership in the military. It would be good for you to talk to the defiant folks to explain what’s happening. I personally am going to be calling my representatives in Washington today to explain my alarm that there are military leaders in hot zones today, who are quoting scripture and talking about the bloody Crusades and the end times and the coming of Jesus Christ. They are talking about Armageddon and are very very happy about this. So we need to start really seriously talking about this because these are the type of people who would absolutely try to blow things up which would kill us all. I do not think I’m exaggerating.
They will be the ones who will be judged the hardest.
The ones promoting this who are using it to control their followers are the ones... And they need to be exposed so their followers - and everyone else - can be freed to see the truth. Some will get it, some won't, some will claim any leadership position made vacant, but we need to chip away at their grip on our government.
Absolutely! Mike Johnson is a member of that cult, as is Hegseth. They want to engineer the End Times so that the 2nd coming of Christ will occur and they’ll be saved. What they fail to understand is that their god probably doesn’t appreciate mankind trying to manipulate him. Jesus would likely be imprisoned if he were to show up now by the same folks who are praying fervently for his appearance. If god and Jesus are smart, they’ll leave those fools to their own demise and laugh at them on judgement day.
For more serious info on wcn and the plan, check out Andra Watkins on Substack. She’s the expert on this and P 2025.
This all feels very much like what my Grandmother would have called a spilled milk problem.
When I was very young, my grandmother taught me about what she called “spilled milk problems.”
Her lesson was simple but profound: act with care to avoid spilling the milk. Once the milk is spilled, it takes time, effort, and attention to clean up the mess. That time and effort could have been spent on something productive. And no matter how thoroughly you wipe the floor, you cannot put the milk back into the glass.
The loss is permanent.
A war of choice without clear objectives, constitutional authorization, and a defined path to peace feels very much like one of those spilled milk problems.
We have already spilled some of the milk. Lives have been lost. Billions have been spent. Instability has been unleashed. Even if we eventually “clean up” the situation, we will not be able to restore what was lost — not the lives, not the resources, not the time diverted from other urgent needs.
The deeper question is this: would it not have been better to think carefully and avoid spilling the milk in the first place?
I DO remember 2008 and I DON'T think it will be a brief war. Remember COVID? He said it would last for 2 weeks, 2 weeks it would be over by Easter (interesting that this is happening at a similar time of year) and it lasted NOT weeks, NOT months but YEARS! And I also remember another Republican President saying early on that the mission was accomplished. He was wrong as well, the Iraq War lasted way too long!
I would add how much worse and immediate the crisis is for our once and hopefully future allies in Europe, who depend so much more than we do on not only oil but natural gas from the Middle East. Never mind China. The possibility this blows up into a greater global conflagration haunts. Meanwhile the Saudis and Russians laugh all the way to the bank, and the nihilist regime here is crushing alternative energy development…
Miles, this is one of many issues that this ill conceived, and unnecessary, war triggered for me! Now it appears that this Iranian War was instigated at the behest of two reprehensible thugs, Netanyahu and MBS, who so easily manipulated Trump into attacking Iran, and apparently without any real plans for what to do have the initial “shock & awe” of the bombing. We, and the entire world will suffer because of the insanity that is this regime!
Another comment, per The Guardian about 3 hours ago:
“Amid soaring energy prices, QatarEnergy to halt production of some downstream products
QatarEnergy, the state-owned energy company, announced Tuesday that it was going to halt production on some downstream products including urea, polymers, methanol and aluminum.”
And yesterday I read about a cut-off of liquid natural gas supplies in The Guardian
Taylor argues that while the 2008 crash is remembered for mortgages, record-high oil prices were the "accelerant" that made the collapse inevitable. He fears the same is happening now.
First off, this is a discrete disruption, not a diffuse failure of hundreds of lenders, intermediaries, and real estate owners. Do not conflate them. It is a war, currently localized to the Mideast.
I would never argue that a war is 'simple', because it never is. But this one aspect of the Iranian War is that some of their assets and forces are focused on threatening the shipping wanting to cross the Strait of Hormuz. The other side of the Strait is Oman and UAE, both of whom have taken unilateral hits by Iran. The equipment and crews making the hits, and their supply lines, could be neutralized, with extreme prejudice. The American firepower in the region, the Israelis, Oman and UAE (20-30 miles away) would certainly have something to say about this.
Yes, and though we don't have the mortgage crisis, we have the tariff-made crisis, the firing of however many federal workers, holding back of funds for all sorts of things that help Americans who aren't billionaires - which also hurt businesses that depend on people spending money who now lack money to spend, loss of tax revenue from immigrants being locked up - offset by who knows how much by additional ICE and CBP hirings and money poured into detention centers that makes us all less safe, loss of local tax revenues from the feds buying warehouses which makes them untaxable by local governments, and a growing number of present and future bankruptcies where lenders lose their money. I wonder what businesses will be "too big to fail" this time and how much money Trump and his allies will be making off of surging oil prices and investing in failing businesses just before Trump uses federal funds to bail them out.
Yes on all of that. The blockage of the Strait will soon be a footnote to all of the other economic destruction already underway.
And, contrary to Bondi's exultation, the DOW is at 47,771 as I type. Wondering how many who knew in advance and sold when high will make a bundle.
Trump destroys everything he touches.
This information is important for all of us to understand and be prepared for.
Very well stated, Miles. It appears that the regime may never have considered the effect of closure of the Strait. Or, it was considered and discarded as a factor in their planning. Frankly, it looks like a great deal of the planning was haphazard. We may get through with minimal effect on cost of petroleum products; however,the chaos we are creating in Iran may continue for a long time. It could also have a powerful negative effect on the cost of petroleum.
I think somebody planned this, but not the Trump administration - Israel and Russia perhaps?
Malcolm Nance was just reporting within the last hour (around 9-9:30am Eastern) that the strait is only “effectively” closed because it’s too risky to attempt to go through, but maybe his info is outdated.