UPDATED: Red alert. It's all coming true.
They said my warnings about Trump 2.0 were "preposterous." Now the data says otherwise.
I’ve spent seven years warning about the dangers of a Trump second term. The president and his allies said my warnings were “phony,” “preposterous,” and “fake news,” while also trying vainly to shut me up. Last summer, I posted a back-envelope analysis showing that nearly 50% of those predictions had already come true, from revenge investigations into Trump’s enemies to mass purges of civil servants. Now one year into Trump’s second term, 90% of those warnings have materialized — with some of the worst still underway.
Let’s take a step back for a moment. The year before the 2024 election, I published a book forecasting what would happen if America made the mistake of re-electing Trump. I interview around 100 top Republicans and former colleagues from the first Trump administration, including everyone from top cabinet members to entry-level assistants who sat in the West Wing. I asked them one question: what did Trump want to do in a first term that he will do in a second?
The portrait was chilling, to say the least.
Trump and his allies said I was a liar. They disputed almost everything in the text. My predictions were “preposterous” and would never come true, they said. Fabrications meant to hurt then-candidate Trump. You can see a sample of their missives below. I wasn’t phased by their personal attacks. By then I was used to them. But I was worried that voters would believe Trump and his cronies denials — and dismiss the warnings as classic symptoms of “Trump Derangement Syndrome.”
So six months after Trump returned to power, I put together “THE BLOWBACK SCORECARD.” I just updated it for the one-year mark of Trump’s second term. Take a look below. And you tell me: was I deranged? Green means it already happened. Yellow means it’s underway. Red means it hasn’t happened, but it’s still something that’s possible, if not likely.
The trend line is bad. When I first put this together last summer, half of my predictions from BLOWBACK: A Warning to Save Democracy from Trump’s Revenge had already come true. Now, that figure stands at 90 percent. Meanwhile, some of the most dire forecasts that haven’t come to fruition yet — such as the invocation of the Insurrection Act and suspension of habeas corpus — have nonetheless been openly discussed by the White House.
This isn’t an “I-told-you-so” moment. My point here is to catalogue how quickly the situation inside the Executive Branch has deteriorated, underscore what could still befall America, and most importantly, catalogue the disastrous policies and actions we need to reverse to restore our constitutional system. Most of these chaos was foreseeable, as I discussed on MSNOW this weekend, but it’s also reversible.
But there’s good news that you won’t find in the chart below. Indeed, I never anticipated that the resistance — or the defiance, as I like to call it — would be so resilient. People are waking up. People are standing up. People are speaking up. And every week folks are channeling the outrage into real action to curtail Donald Trump’s autocratic odyssey. That’s also what I’ve committed my life to right now.
In response to all of this, DEFIANCE.org is funding lawsuits against Trump’s constitutional violations… We’re backing people who are documenting ICE’s illegal actions… We’re protecting whistleblowers who speak out… and so much more. You can tune in to DEFIANCE Daily each weekday to see what we’re doing, especially Wednesdays at 5pm ET when we announce the action we’re taking that week. (Watch LIVE on our DEFIANCE.News page, on our YouTube channel, or on my X account. Subscribers / members of DEFIANCE.org can watch the replay for free.)
We have a long way to go before all of this is over. But I just want to say, personally, how much it’s meant to me be in a community of patriots like this. Last year, my family went through our hardest year ever. We lost our livelihood, our personal security, and some of our closest friends — all because we decided to fight back against Trump’s retaliation. I do not regret it. Yesterday, my wife Hannah and I were discussing the increased risks from all of this, yet we recommitted to seeing it through until this wannabe dictator is gone.
So I am in this — with you all — for the long haul. Every penny given to this Substack newsletter goes to our efforts at DEFIANCE.org to fight back against Trump’s abuses of power — lawfully, peacefully, and defiantly. If you’re not a Member, please consider signing up here on Substack or at DEFIANCE.org. For less than the cost of a Starbucks latte, every month you can fund efforts to actively counter the president’s lawlessness.
Thank you all for your support. You’ve kept me going.
Your friend, in defiance,
THE BLOWBACK SCORECARD
Here’s a summary of what I predicted would happen in Trump 2.0. The vast majority of it has come true, and we’re only one year into Donald Trump’s second term. Think of this as a roadmap of key areas where Trump’s abuses of power must be contested and, ultimately, reversed.
🟢GREEN HAS HAPPENED. 🟡YELLOW IS UNDERWAY. 🔴RED IS COMING.
Weaponization of Power
🟢A revenge machine: Trump will widely use government tools to target enemies, not uphold the law.
🟢The purge of the bureaucracy: People who are disloyal or critical inside the executive branch—career officials or political appointees—will be purged.
🟢Dangerous diehards at the helm: The ‘D Team’ will take over: Expect “fifth-raters” and “yes men” to lead America’s most powerful agencies.
🟢“Shock troops” seeded into the bureaucracy: Only hyper-loyalists will be placed in the key “lieutenant” jobs beneath the yes-men leaders. These will be people who put Trump over Constitution.
🟢Agencies become a MAGA piggy bank: Key departments will become a MAGA piggy bank. The White House will gut a vast array of federal departments and programs to pay for priorities like immigration.
A Fearful & Gutted Government
🟢Chill across the Capital: A climate of fear will grip Washington; career officials will self-censor to avoid retribution.
🟢Exodus of experts: Scientists, civil servants, and national security professionals will be fired and/or quit in droves, leaving agencies hollowed out.
🟢Politicized intelligence: The intelligence and law enforcement agencies will be politicized, with analysts afraid to speak truth to power. Cherry-picked findings used for political aims or retribution, leading to policy failures.
🟢Independence destroyed: Institutions across the government that have historically been independent will come under Trump’s control.
War on the Justice System
🟢Law enforcement becomes personal enforcers: DOJ and the FBI will face unprecedented pressure to prosecute political enemies of the President and protect allies by reprioritization investigative resources.
🟢Lawbreakers take the reins: Trump will surround himself with loyalists willing to break democratic norms and defend his violations of law to the courts and to the public.
🟢Courts come under fire: Trump will mount a sweeping attack on the courts, delegitimizing judges, attempting to remove judges, attempting judicial “gerrymandering,” and ultimately defying the orders of courts who strike down his policies.
🔴Supreme defiance: At some point, when and if the President openly defied the Supreme Court in a major case that breaks against him, the rule of law could be irrevocably damaged.
Suppression of Dissent & Free Speech
🟢Trump critics branded as “traitors”: A second Trump term will escalate attacks on whistleblowers and journalists, accusing them of “treason” and wielding the Espionage Act to punish critics of the President, including through prosecutions.
🟢The new insurrectionists: Trump’s team will label domestic critics as “terrorists” or “insurrectionists.”
🟢Any and all opposition assailed: Trump will go after private business, organizations, and opposition groups deemed to oppose his agenda, using “leverage” of government support and/or prosecution as a tool of coercion.
🟢Death of dissent: Dissent will be reframed as disloyalty, with surveillance and prosecutions to follow.
Subversion of Congress
🟢Power of the purse: The White House will simply ignore Congressional spending directives to do what they want, including moving around money, deleting agencies, and beyond.
🟢A rubber stamp Congress: Congressional MAGA loyalists will act as enforcers, not as a check on the executive, rubber-stamping radical policies and investigating critics instead of wrongdoers.
🟢Show trials and revenge hearings: Hill investigations will be weaponized to punish perceived enemies, from university presidents to former civil servants.
🟡Use impeachment as a weapon: Trump allies in Congress may seek to impeach past officials or judges — not just to remove them from office, but to disqualify them from future service.
🔴“Secret laws”: Congressional allies of Trump could use defense and intelligence bills to insert classified directives that the American people — and many Members of Congress themselves — will not be able to see, in order to advance Trump’s agenda.
State & Local Retaliation
🟢Burying the Blue States: Democratic states and liberal institutions will face coordinated federal retaliation, especially through funding cuts or investigations.
🟢Disaster aid as a weapon: The White House will politicize assistance to Americans — like FEMA aid — using it to bludgeon or coerce uncooperative officials to heed the President’s agenda, or else.
🟢MAGA breakaway actions: States controlled by MAGA governors will defy federal law and democratic norms, selectively enforcing rules based on loyalty to Trump (e.g. off-cycle gerrymandering, using their National Guards against one another, etc.).
Using the Military Against Americans
🟢Troops on U.S. soil: Trump views the military as a tool for internal control, not just defense. He may deploy federal troops on U.S. soil to quash dissent or protests under false pretenses; at a minimum, immigration crackdowns will be used to justify the expansion of domestic military and police powers.
🟢Gitmo for political prisoners: Trump will the terrorist detention facility at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba for use against his political targets, such as deported immigrants or others deemed to be “enemies of the state.”
🟢Forever wars, at home: Use of force domestically will become normalized. Trump may leverage troop deployments to intimidate or coerce local governments to align with his agenda or shape electoral outcomes.
A New “War on Terror”
🟢Expanded airport and border searches: MAGA leaders could leverage TSA, CBP, and other DHS components to question, delay, or intimidate critics.
🟢DHS retooled for repression: DHS may be directed to prioritize ideological threats — real or imagined — like “antifa,” pro-migrant groups, or even political rivals.
🟢Domestic spying: National security powers like mass data collection, AI, and even FISA could be deployed against journalists, protestors, and political dissenters.
🟢Other emergency powers: Secretive “break glass” powers may allow Trump to restrict travel, silence the press, or detain individuals without due process under the guise of a crisis, including formally designating left-leaning groups as “terrorist organizations” to justify further crackdowns.
Civil Unrest … and Political Violence
🟢Vitriol jumps the tracks to violence: Civil unrest will become more widespread; conspiracy theory rhetoric will inspire lone wolves, extremists, and militia groups to engage an attacks, including assassination attempts against opposition figures
🟢Invasions: Trump will declare new “invasions” to bypass due process and implement mass deportations; DHS and DOJ will be directed to carry out these policies even if unconstitutional.
🟡The big one: Trump 2.0 could Invoke the Insurrection Act and/or suspend habeas corpus in the name of “domestic security,” allowing domestic security forces to arrest and detain people without letting them challenge their detention.
Foreign Policy Collapse
🟢Diplomacy destroyed: The State Department will be gutted of non-loyalists, replaced with MAGA operatives willing to enforce the regime’s worldview abroad. What’s more, sanctions, visa bans, and security designations may be deployed not as strategic tools but as means of retribution.
🟢Abandoning allies: Trump will largely disparage America’s democratic allies, leaving them in a state of confusion and corroding the Western alliance; he will also withdraw support from Ukraine, leaving Europe exposed to Russian aggression.
🟢A weakness for strongmen: Trump will cozy up to dictators like Putin, Orbán, and Xi while undermining NATO and Western alliances.
Erosion of Truth
🟢The conspiracy house: Trump’s second term will accelerate the spread of disinformation from within the government itself. The White House will become a hub for state-sanctioned conspiracy theories.
🟢Fake populism, real power grab: MAGA leaders will use culture war rhetoric and conspiracy theories to consolidate power.
🟢QAnon mainstreamed: Fringe conspiracies will become guiding beliefs for policymaking and public statements.
P.S. WHAT’S HAPPENING ON DEFIANCE.NEWS
Here’s what’s coming up. Also, you can add the “DEFIANCE.org” calendar to your calendar if you don’t want to miss anything. Click here.
TONIGHT // DEFIANCE Daily // 5p ET - Watch LIVE on our DEFIANCE.News page, on our YouTube channel, or on my X account.
WEDNESDAY // DEFIANCE Daily - Weekly Mission Brief feat. Tara McGowan // 5p ET - I know we say this a lot, but you really don’t want to miss this one. We will be announcing a major event for February.
FRIDAY // Weekly Coffee // 2p ET - Join us for another Weekly Coffee, where you can ask questions about anything! Members-only chat. Join us LIVE on our DEFIANCE.News page, or watch the replay.
Truth tellers always get gaslit and defamed by narcissists and people exhibiting all the markers of antisocial personality disorder. While it has not been on as large of a stage as you, Miles,I have been there in my own life, as well. To be a latter day Cassandra warning people about the upcoming trainwreck & being disbelieved, betrayed, and persecuted is no fun. Also, saying "I told you so" has little consolation when you witness the tragedies.
The resistance is finally gathering the momentum. Let's do it and fight the tyranny trying to destroy our country and the world!
Miles, your batting average is unmatched. I read your anonymously authored book and was hopeful that you would remain embedded to quietly save my American friends & neighbours. It was not to be. Alas, you’re still doing the work.
One quibble: the American people didn’t choose this president. The 2024 presidential election was obviously fraudulent. People like https://electiontruthalliance.org are showing evidence of vote manipulation and corruption. Read the Common Coalition Report online and see This Will Hold here on Substack.
ETA has a lawsuit in PA, the goal is to audit the votes. All it takes is enough pressure on the relevant politicians to expose the fraud to the whole country and take down the illegitimate regime.