The domino that ends NATO has already been pushed.

Trump doesn’t need to invade Greenland to destroy the world’s most important alliance. He’s already fired the opening shot.

Yesterday, European countries did something extraordinary. France, Germany, Sweden, and other NATO allies agreed to deploy troops to Greenland for what officials are carefully calling “exercises.” The move comes amid Donald Trump’s continued threats to “take control” of Greenland — an autonomous territory that belongs to Denmark, a fellow NATO member.

Some analysts are now warning that a U.S. invasion of Greenland could be the push of a domino that finally ends the NATO alliance. They’re wrong. The domino has already been pushed.

To understand why, it’s worth briefly summing up the moment we’re in.

Since returning to office, Donald Trump has repeatedly said the United States must take control of Greenland for “national security” reasons. He has openly questioned Denmark’s sovereignty over the territory, suggested it is “vital” to U.S. missile defense plans, and — crucially — refused to rule out the use of force.

After a tense meeting in Washington yesterday with Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Denmark’s foreign minister emerged with a blunt assessment, namely that it was “clear that the president has this wish of conquering Greenland.”

Denmark responded by immediately increasing its military presence on the island. Germany dispatched a reconnaissance team to Nuuk, the island’s capital. France, which is the EU’s only nuclear-armed power, confirmed it would send troops. Then Sweden joined the mission at Denmark’s request.

All of this is happening inside NATO. All of it is happening among allies. And all of it is happening because the president of the United States has publicly threatened to seize the territory of another NATO country.

Already, this moment could spell the beginning of the end of the alliance.

Here’s the part too many analysts are missing.

NATO is not enforced by police. It’s not backed by a global court or held together by some external authority that can compel compliance. NATO exists solely because its members trust one another. That trust is the only thing that makes Article 5 — the pledge that “an attack on one is an attack on all” — even remotely meaningful.

When the United States was hit by terrorists on September 11, 2001, no one could force NATO allies to come to America’s defense. There was no mechanism to compel them or any real penalties for refusing. They came anyway. They came because they trusted the United States and its intentions. And because of that trust, America planned its response to al Qaeda knowing it would not stand alone.

That was the foundation of NATO’s power. And just shy of one year into his second term, Donald Trump has shattered it.

For the first time in NATO’s history, member states are repositioning forces not to defend one another from an external enemy — but to prepare for the possibility of an internal threat from one of their own. Let that sink in. NATO countries are now openly contemplating a future in which the United States might become an armed antagonist rather than a guarantor of security.

This changes everything.

Even if the United States never fires a shot in Greenland, the damage is already done. For years to come, NATO allies will question America’s word. They will quietly hedge against U.S. interests and design their security strategies with the previously unthinkable contingency in mind that the United States itself could someday be the threat. Practically speaking, this is nearly as destabilizing as the 82nd Airborne parachuting into Greenland.

The alliance isn’t dead yet. But it’s in grave danger.

This doesn’t mean NATO has collapsed. Treaties don’t (usually) vanish overnight. But it does mean the alliance is in the gravest danger of its entire existence.

There is a useful domestic analogy here.

A marriage does not automatically end the moment one partner commits infidelity. The legal bond remains. The partners still share a house or apartment and their daily routines may even continue for a while. But everything about how that relationship once worked is altered. Trust is gone. Assumptions are gone. Every action is reinterpreted through suspicion rather than confidence. The relationship may survive, but only if something profound changes. And it almost never fixes itself.

So it is with NATO.

Donald Trump’s threats toward Greenland are not a forgettable negotiating tactic. In the eyes of our closest friends, they are already an extraordinary betrayal. Nations that sent their men and women overseas to die for the United States in places like Afghanistan and Iraq now see us acting like ungrateful, petulant, duplicitous thieves. Call it “strategic infidelity.” And those allies are responding accordingly.

So what now, Miles? Do we just let it happen?

Here’s the part that still matters, friends — and why this moment is not yet beyond saving.

Alliances aren’t really about the governments that sign the documents. Sure, they dispatch suited leaders between capitals to eat salads and redline wordy documents about meaningless “working groups” and 10-step plans. I’ve been one of those self-important bureaucrats. But let me tell you the truth: they’re not that important.

Alliances are built on people. Real friendships do the heavy lifting. Ask anyone who served in the conflicts of the past two decades what their view is of our NATO partners. Chances are, those folks have abiding respect and gratitude toward fellow soldiers from places like London, Copenhagen, and Stockholm who volunteered to have their backs in firefights that could have taken their own lives.

I’d argue that the close fraternity of NATO’s first few decades had less to do with the Cold War than many people think and a lot more to do with the forged-in-fire memories — and mutual respect — of the World War II generation. Both sides of the Atlantic remembered that their people had fought and died together. We weren’t going to abandon each other after that.

But right now, many European allies see America as a monolith. Trump’s infantile bluster is so loud and so shocking that it drowns out everything else. To them, it feels as though the United States has turned irredeemably imperial. They’ve forgotten that the alliance is strong not because it’s tethered to the Resolute Desk in the Oval Office but because it’s tethered to us. But to remember that, they need to hear us.

Americans need to say, clearly and without qualification, that we do not want to “take over” Greenland. We don’t support invading the territory of an ally. In fact, we find this idea grotesque and unacceptable. Do we want deeper cooperation in the Arctic? Of course! Stronger relationships with Denmark and Greenland? Sure!

But conquest and coercion? Threats against a fellow democracy? Nope. Not our style. More than 75% of Americans oppose this president and his whacky imperial agenda in Greenland, according to CNN, and that matters — but only if our allies hear it.

That can take a lot of forms. Protests, opinion pieces, letters to the editor, phone calls to Congress, and more. We need to create noise that is louder than Donald Trump’s virtual fist-pounding and verbal flatulence. If Europeans hear that Americans’ views are out of sync with Trump, it can still buy NATO some time. It can offer a sliver of hope that the country they once trusted might return when the madman in the White House exits. And that hope, however fragile, could be enough to convince allies to wait one more beat before finalizing plans for a future without us.

The domino has been pushed, but whether it keeps falling is still up to us.

Your friend, in defiance,

P.S. WHAT’S HAPPENING ON DEFIANCE.NEWS

Here’s what’s coming up.

1. LAST NIGHT // DEFIANCE Daily, Weekly Mission Brief, feat. George Conway - Watch the replay. We announced real action to push back against Trump’s “secret police,” including partnering with two major organizations to expand efforts to film and document ICE’s abuses of power and to make sure thousands more people get “Know Your Rights” training in frontline communities. If you are a Member of DEFIANCE.org, you’ll get a follow-up email today with more details!

2. TONIGHT // DEFIANCE Daily // 5p ET - Watch LIVE on our DEFIANCE.News page, on our YouTube channel, or on my X account.

3. TOMORROW (FRI) // Weekly Coffee // 2p ET - Join us for another Weekly Coffee, where you can ask questions about anything! Members-only chat. Join us LIVE on our DEFIANCE.News page, or watch the replay.

P.P.S. If you’re not following us on social media, now you can get the latest updates. You can follow us on Instagram, TikTok, X, Threads, BlueSky, and YouTube.